To avoid their big miss in 2020, pollsters are making their polls look more like 2020. Here's why that's (probably) a big mistake and why we should stop looking at polls entirely.
I would not be totally surprised if the 1-2 punch of recall-weighted polls and lopsided covid deaths due to political polarization of vaccines are obscuring a pretty comfortable Kamala win. It would be great if the real answer to “HOW can this race be so close?” is “It’s not”
This could definitely be wishful thinking on my part, but it makes intuitive sense
I don't even buy the cynical take that it's some deliberate strategy for clicks and money (maybe that's a little true but I don't think it's the main motivation). Rather, I think mainstream news outlets spent 100+ years in a world where both main political parties were pretty similar and simply cannot wrap their heads around the reality that there is no equivalence between a center-left party and one drowning in its own soup of lies, conspiracy theories, trolls, racism, and eugenics. If you were to write straight down-the-line analysis of both candidates and called them on their flaws using equal standards, the score would be like 1000-1 Trump : Harris, and the media is unwilling to admit that, especially after years of being harassed for "liberal bias"
Thank you for suggesting that article! Great read.
There's a problem with how too many of us are willing to listen and take seriously the worst of our population/community ideas and beliefs. I think this has much to do with what you said regarding our media (and I would include our civilization in general) not being used to the onslaught of bad faith arguments and/or complete trash spewed by politicians and other media motivated for by personal gain only.
This is really heartening. With recent claims that the polls show Trump ahead I just couldn’t imagine that there were so many people in that country who saw him as fit to be free on the street, let alone in the White House. It made me fearful for the future of the free world.
Ha! I feel the same, but you could substitute Harris for Trump. At least I know what Trump stands for. Harris can’t tell us what she stands for except non-Trump and abortion.
I doubt polling operators have changed much since I worked in a polling center as a summer job before I went to college. We kept a list of numbers we called and who answered and how they answered. We were paid to have the polls hit a specific metric. The boss would update the percentage on a white board and as soon as we hit that percentage (along with the amount of people called), we would stop the poll. If we couldn’t hit the target number, we paid the company that hired us a monetary fine.
We did political polling, brand polling, entertainment polling, etc. We always called the same people. I would talk to the same people so much they knew who I was before I could say. Some would even ask, “What poll do you want me to take today?” Even others would ask, “What should I say to make it look good.” We always had to steer away and stick to the script but people knew we needed certain responses.
To answer your question about why the Rs are making out that DJT is winning, it’s because it’s human nature to want to say that you voted for the person who won the election. So if someone truly thinks that Trump is winning, they might just change their Harris vote to Trump, just so they can be “in” with the winners, which would then give Trump more votes.
Thing is, though, it’s pretty obvious now that the only polls that put Trump ahead are the ones taken by the Rs… so, they’re just not polling the Ds, and everyone knows it.
I’ve not read the fine print on the polls, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Rs don’t say “random” any longer — i.e. the Rs have found their sample’s size of Ds who say, for whatever reason, they’re going to vote for Trump, and then the Rs always poll the same people, so that they can always get the results they want.
The Trump Uplift is creating the appearance of a close race and Trump could use them to justify bad counting and disrupt everything … let’s hope the red wave required to make it close isn’t real
I’ve read quite a few analyses of this new post-poll tweaking methodology based on “recalled votes”, and although all go to lengths to acknowledge the good intentions its use is based on, they also ALL have doubted the accuracy of results when applied to this election for the solid reasons well-explained in this article.
most widely accepted polls are by widely known and often affiliated with a organization. Either they make an attempt to be neutral and accurate, or they do not, and if they do not, there is a meaning in trying to decipher what those with agendas would have an interest in portraying, why they have an interest in portraying it, and what they believe the real status is. this is all in addition to the number of polls done by organizations that would try to be as unbiased as possible.
I forgot to comment on your question about can we trust people to remember who they voted for four years ago, or if they even voted… I am astounded that anyone could forget who they voted for or if they voted! WTF? But then again, we did elect Trump so there is definitely some mental deficiencies within a huge section of the electorate, so there you are. 😳
I loved this article first, it explains an heretofore opaque unreality in the polls from the masters Silver/ABC538/RCP... coming away shaking my head, mumbling..this just can't be right! Second, it is making a good call...just walk away Renee! From polling!
Independents aren’t usually polled and we’re the growing group of “deciders”… most of us are highly educated, well-off and have no tolerance for the left or right BS - that said, the independent voter mantra s/b thought of as “I’m an independent - I vote for the person, not the party”… we cast votes across the political spectrum, favoring those that
demonstrate their character and moral/ethical compass, on a daily basis, by
(1) expressing compassion
(2) having empathy
(3) having and following one’s moral/ethical compass
(4) leading by example
(5) praising in public whilst coaching in private
(6) being honest, transparent and demonstrating respect and integrity in all we do/say and how we behave, both in private and public…
Now, knowing this, who’da hell do y’all think the independent voters will cast their ballots for???
I don't buy the argument about polling. Let's say 48% of people voted for Trump in 2020. You poll 100 people today, and 45 of them say they voted for Trump in 2020. Then it would be logical to weight each of these respondents as 1 1/16, right? So for every 16 respondents who say they voted for Trump, you count them as 17 respondents, regardless of who they say they'll vote for in 2024. Presumably, some will lean to vote for Harris this year.
As far as GOTV, Republican inactivity implies that they plan to have the Supreme Court appoint the president, as it did in 2020.
And 2004. Democrats did not learn the lesson then, nit even after J6, not when they were in majority, (would have passed the voting,labor, women's rights), nor when they're in minority without fighting passing of illegal policies, scrorus appointments, (roberts, amy, beerbrett were part of successfully appointing bush to throne) by traitorgqp. Democrats are also part of the problem, politics as usual, and deserve the blame.
The more you have to “adjust” the data to correct for this, that or the other, it should become clearer that you are asking the data to tell you things it can’t, like what is actually going to happen next month.
I would not be totally surprised if the 1-2 punch of recall-weighted polls and lopsided covid deaths due to political polarization of vaccines are obscuring a pretty comfortable Kamala win. It would be great if the real answer to “HOW can this race be so close?” is “It’s not”
This could definitely be wishful thinking on my part, but it makes intuitive sense
I think we all have been gaslighted for the past 8 years it's hard not to feel like we are simply missing something.
It's also difficult to gauge because the media goes out of their way to highlight maga voters just like these polls.
So yeah, I hope to all that is good in this world, your observation is correct.
Gaslighting is the perfect word, and it even gets into the headlines and framing. Journalism professor and former NYT public editor Margaret Sullivan breaks it down in this great post: https://margaretsullivan.substack.com/p/about-those-new-york-times-headlines
I don't even buy the cynical take that it's some deliberate strategy for clicks and money (maybe that's a little true but I don't think it's the main motivation). Rather, I think mainstream news outlets spent 100+ years in a world where both main political parties were pretty similar and simply cannot wrap their heads around the reality that there is no equivalence between a center-left party and one drowning in its own soup of lies, conspiracy theories, trolls, racism, and eugenics. If you were to write straight down-the-line analysis of both candidates and called them on their flaws using equal standards, the score would be like 1000-1 Trump : Harris, and the media is unwilling to admit that, especially after years of being harassed for "liberal bias"
Thank you for suggesting that article! Great read.
There's a problem with how too many of us are willing to listen and take seriously the worst of our population/community ideas and beliefs. I think this has much to do with what you said regarding our media (and I would include our civilization in general) not being used to the onslaught of bad faith arguments and/or complete trash spewed by politicians and other media motivated for by personal gain only.
This is really heartening. With recent claims that the polls show Trump ahead I just couldn’t imagine that there were so many people in that country who saw him as fit to be free on the street, let alone in the White House. It made me fearful for the future of the free world.
Ha! I feel the same, but you could substitute Harris for Trump. At least I know what Trump stands for. Harris can’t tell us what she stands for except non-Trump and abortion.
So you haven't been paying attention.
I think the Democrats are going to win this one, but class/education dealignment is going to create major problems with governing almost immediately.
Exactly right. Every indication is that this will be 2022 redux, rather than 2020. I believe she will win by 6 points or more.
I doubt polling operators have changed much since I worked in a polling center as a summer job before I went to college. We kept a list of numbers we called and who answered and how they answered. We were paid to have the polls hit a specific metric. The boss would update the percentage on a white board and as soon as we hit that percentage (along with the amount of people called), we would stop the poll. If we couldn’t hit the target number, we paid the company that hired us a monetary fine.
We did political polling, brand polling, entertainment polling, etc. We always called the same people. I would talk to the same people so much they knew who I was before I could say. Some would even ask, “What poll do you want me to take today?” Even others would ask, “What should I say to make it look good.” We always had to steer away and stick to the script but people knew we needed certain responses.
Wow.
To answer your question about why the Rs are making out that DJT is winning, it’s because it’s human nature to want to say that you voted for the person who won the election. So if someone truly thinks that Trump is winning, they might just change their Harris vote to Trump, just so they can be “in” with the winners, which would then give Trump more votes.
Thing is, though, it’s pretty obvious now that the only polls that put Trump ahead are the ones taken by the Rs… so, they’re just not polling the Ds, and everyone knows it.
I’ve not read the fine print on the polls, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Rs don’t say “random” any longer — i.e. the Rs have found their sample’s size of Ds who say, for whatever reason, they’re going to vote for Trump, and then the Rs always poll the same people, so that they can always get the results they want.
Pairs well with:
https://open.substack.com/pub/goodbyedonald/p/the-state-of-the-race-the-view-from
https://medium.com/@rickpenney/recall-polling-and-trumps-4-6-uplift-e4e2041c1653
The Trump Uplift is creating the appearance of a close race and Trump could use them to justify bad counting and disrupt everything … let’s hope the red wave required to make it close isn’t real
I’ve read quite a few analyses of this new post-poll tweaking methodology based on “recalled votes”, and although all go to lengths to acknowledge the good intentions its use is based on, they also ALL have doubted the accuracy of results when applied to this election for the solid reasons well-explained in this article.
I stopped paying attention to polls years ago.
complete buffoon
Yes, if you’re talking about people who pay attention to polls.
No. People who pay attention to polls are people gaining information about the race.
Polls suck. Those conducting them always have their own agendas and only seek opinions from people who support their biases.
most widely accepted polls are by widely known and often affiliated with a organization. Either they make an attempt to be neutral and accurate, or they do not, and if they do not, there is a meaning in trying to decipher what those with agendas would have an interest in portraying, why they have an interest in portraying it, and what they believe the real status is. this is all in addition to the number of polls done by organizations that would try to be as unbiased as possible.
I forgot to comment on your question about can we trust people to remember who they voted for four years ago, or if they even voted… I am astounded that anyone could forget who they voted for or if they voted! WTF? But then again, we did elect Trump so there is definitely some mental deficiencies within a huge section of the electorate, so there you are. 😳
It's less of a mental deficiency as a design flaw in brains. That is, a brain working properly still misremembers things for predictable reasons.
Same reason my wife buys the thing I told her NOT to buy…. A bottle opener is not a corkscrew.
Love the video. Polls are bullshit like your article says.
I loved this article first, it explains an heretofore opaque unreality in the polls from the masters Silver/ABC538/RCP... coming away shaking my head, mumbling..this just can't be right! Second, it is making a good call...just walk away Renee! From polling!
Independents aren’t usually polled and we’re the growing group of “deciders”… most of us are highly educated, well-off and have no tolerance for the left or right BS - that said, the independent voter mantra s/b thought of as “I’m an independent - I vote for the person, not the party”… we cast votes across the political spectrum, favoring those that
demonstrate their character and moral/ethical compass, on a daily basis, by
(1) expressing compassion
(2) having empathy
(3) having and following one’s moral/ethical compass
(4) leading by example
(5) praising in public whilst coaching in private
(6) being honest, transparent and demonstrating respect and integrity in all we do/say and how we behave, both in private and public…
Now, knowing this, who’da hell do y’all think the independent voters will cast their ballots for???
I don't buy the argument about polling. Let's say 48% of people voted for Trump in 2020. You poll 100 people today, and 45 of them say they voted for Trump in 2020. Then it would be logical to weight each of these respondents as 1 1/16, right? So for every 16 respondents who say they voted for Trump, you count them as 17 respondents, regardless of who they say they'll vote for in 2024. Presumably, some will lean to vote for Harris this year.
As far as GOTV, Republican inactivity implies that they plan to have the Supreme Court appoint the president, as it did in 2020.
And 2004. Democrats did not learn the lesson then, nit even after J6, not when they were in majority, (would have passed the voting,labor, women's rights), nor when they're in minority without fighting passing of illegal policies, scrorus appointments, (roberts, amy, beerbrett were part of successfully appointing bush to throne) by traitorgqp. Democrats are also part of the problem, politics as usual, and deserve the blame.
The more you have to “adjust” the data to correct for this, that or the other, it should become clearer that you are asking the data to tell you things it can’t, like what is actually going to happen next month.