To avoid their big miss in 2020, pollsters are making their polls look more like 2020. Here's why that's (probably) a big mistake and why we should stop looking at polls entirely.
I would not be totally surprised if the 1-2 punch of recall-weighted polls and lopsided covid deaths due to political polarization of vaccines are obscuring a pretty comfortable Kamala win. It would be great if the real answer to “HOW can this race be so close?” is “It’s not”
This could definitely be wishful thinking on my part, but it makes intuitive sense
I don't even buy the cynical take that it's some deliberate strategy for clicks and money (maybe that's a little true but I don't think it's the main motivation). Rather, I think mainstream news outlets spent 100+ years in a world where both main political parties were pretty similar and simply cannot wrap their heads around the reality that there is no equivalence between a center-left party and one drowning in its own soup of lies, conspiracy theories, trolls, racism, and eugenics. If you were to write straight down-the-line analysis of both candidates and called them on their flaws using equal standards, the score would be like 1000-1 Trump : Harris, and the media is unwilling to admit that, especially after years of being harassed for "liberal bias"
Thank you for suggesting that article! Great read.
There's a problem with how too many of us are willing to listen and take seriously the worst of our population/community ideas and beliefs. I think this has much to do with what you said regarding our media (and I would include our civilization in general) not being used to the onslaught of bad faith arguments and/or complete trash spewed by politicians and other media motivated for by personal gain only.
This is really heartening. With recent claims that the polls show Trump ahead I just couldn’t imagine that there were so many people in that country who saw him as fit to be free on the street, let alone in the White House. It made me fearful for the future of the free world.
Exactly-who wants to repeat the low inflation, closed borders, high employment for minorities, women, teens etc, energy independence, wage growth across the board, lower taxes - clearly Trump is bad for the country’s
Ha! I feel the same, but you could substitute Harris for Trump. At least I know what Trump stands for. Harris can’t tell us what she stands for except non-Trump and abortion.
I forgot to comment on your question about can we trust people to remember who they voted for four years ago, or if they even voted… I am astounded that anyone could forget who they voted for or if they voted! WTF? But then again, we did elect Trump so there is definitely some mental deficiencies within a huge section of the electorate, so there you are. 😳
To answer your question about why the Rs are making out that DJT is winning, it’s because it’s human nature to want to say that you voted for the person who won the election. So if someone truly thinks that Trump is winning, they might just change their Harris vote to Trump, just so they can be “in” with the winners, which would then give Trump more votes.
Thing is, though, it’s pretty obvious now that the only polls that put Trump ahead are the ones taken by the Rs… so, they’re just not polling the Ds, and everyone knows it.
I’ve not read the fine print on the polls, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Rs don’t say “random” any longer — i.e. the Rs have found their sample’s size of Ds who say, for whatever reason, they’re going to vote for Trump, and then the Rs always poll the same people, so that they can always get the results they want.
most widely accepted polls are by widely known and often affiliated with a organization. Either they make an attempt to be neutral and accurate, or they do not, and if they do not, there is a meaning in trying to decipher what those with agendas would have an interest in portraying, why they have an interest in portraying it, and what they believe the real status is. this is all in addition to the number of polls done by organizations that would try to be as unbiased as possible.
The Trump Uplift is creating the appearance of a close race and Trump could use them to justify bad counting and disrupt everything … let’s hope the red wave required to make it close isn’t real
I loved this article first, it explains an heretofore opaque unreality in the polls from the masters Silver/ABC538/RCP... coming away shaking my head, mumbling..this just can't be right! Second, it is making a good call...just walk away Renee! From polling!
I’ve read quite a few analyses of this new post-poll tweaking methodology based on “recalled votes”, and although all go to lengths to acknowledge the good intentions its use is based on, they also ALL have doubted the accuracy of results when applied to this election for the solid reasons well-explained in this article.
I haven’t heard anyone talking about the shy Harris voters. Much like the shy “Trump” voters in 2016, what about the opposite this time around. People who are voting for Trump are pounding their chest and proud. We (my wife and I) would never put up a Harris/Walz yard sign due to the negativity we would get.
Ironically, on my drive to work, in a county that voted for Trump by over 50% over Biden, there has been an equal number (or thereabouts) of Trump and Harris yard signs. I’m not saying she is going to win my highly conservative county and state. But, maybe she makes inroads? I’ve been wrong before and will likely be wrong again, but it is just something I’ve noticed.
Independents aren’t usually polled and we’re the growing group of “deciders”… most of us are highly educated, well-off and have no tolerance for the left or right BS - that said, the independent voter mantra s/b thought of as “I’m an independent - I vote for the person, not the party”… we cast votes across the political spectrum, favoring those that
demonstrate their character and moral/ethical compass, on a daily basis, by
(1) expressing compassion
(2) having empathy
(3) having and following one’s moral/ethical compass
(4) leading by example
(5) praising in public whilst coaching in private
(6) being honest, transparent and demonstrating respect and integrity in all we do/say and how we behave, both in private and public…
Now, knowing this, who’da hell do y’all think the independent voters will cast their ballots for???
Scenario: Harris wins the election nationally by 5%, and wins the majority of the swing states by 2%+. In this scenario it seems certain that the Republicans would shout from the rooftops "The media and the polls have been saying for months that the race was 50/50, but now they're saying Harris won in a landslide? FRAUD!!!"
Let's be clear, they are going to say fraud in the wake of any outcome other than a clear Trump win (which I think is highly unlikely), but this paradoxical situation where a decisive Harris win adds fuel to their fire is concerning.
All Harris supporters who have a media presence should be hammering every time they appear on TV, social media, print, etc. on the possibility that the polls may be overcompensating for past misses, and Harris may win decisively.
I would not be totally surprised if the 1-2 punch of recall-weighted polls and lopsided covid deaths due to political polarization of vaccines are obscuring a pretty comfortable Kamala win. It would be great if the real answer to “HOW can this race be so close?” is “It’s not”
This could definitely be wishful thinking on my part, but it makes intuitive sense
I think we all have been gaslighted for the past 8 years it's hard not to feel like we are simply missing something.
It's also difficult to gauge because the media goes out of their way to highlight maga voters just like these polls.
So yeah, I hope to all that is good in this world, your observation is correct.
Gaslighting is the perfect word, and it even gets into the headlines and framing. Journalism professor and former NYT public editor Margaret Sullivan breaks it down in this great post: https://margaretsullivan.substack.com/p/about-those-new-york-times-headlines
I don't even buy the cynical take that it's some deliberate strategy for clicks and money (maybe that's a little true but I don't think it's the main motivation). Rather, I think mainstream news outlets spent 100+ years in a world where both main political parties were pretty similar and simply cannot wrap their heads around the reality that there is no equivalence between a center-left party and one drowning in its own soup of lies, conspiracy theories, trolls, racism, and eugenics. If you were to write straight down-the-line analysis of both candidates and called them on their flaws using equal standards, the score would be like 1000-1 Trump : Harris, and the media is unwilling to admit that, especially after years of being harassed for "liberal bias"
Thank you for suggesting that article! Great read.
There's a problem with how too many of us are willing to listen and take seriously the worst of our population/community ideas and beliefs. I think this has much to do with what you said regarding our media (and I would include our civilization in general) not being used to the onslaught of bad faith arguments and/or complete trash spewed by politicians and other media motivated for by personal gain only.
This is really heartening. With recent claims that the polls show Trump ahead I just couldn’t imagine that there were so many people in that country who saw him as fit to be free on the street, let alone in the White House. It made me fearful for the future of the free world.
Exactly-who wants to repeat the low inflation, closed borders, high employment for minorities, women, teens etc, energy independence, wage growth across the board, lower taxes - clearly Trump is bad for the country’s
Ha! I feel the same, but you could substitute Harris for Trump. At least I know what Trump stands for. Harris can’t tell us what she stands for except non-Trump and abortion.
So you haven't been paying attention.
Exactly right. Every indication is that this will be 2022 redux, rather than 2020. I believe she will win by 6 points or more.
I think the Democrats are going to win this one, but class/education dealignment is going to create major problems with governing almost immediately.
I forgot to comment on your question about can we trust people to remember who they voted for four years ago, or if they even voted… I am astounded that anyone could forget who they voted for or if they voted! WTF? But then again, we did elect Trump so there is definitely some mental deficiencies within a huge section of the electorate, so there you are. 😳
It's less of a mental deficiency as a design flaw in brains. That is, a brain working properly still misremembers things for predictable reasons.
Same reason my wife buys the thing I told her NOT to buy…. A bottle opener is not a corkscrew.
Yes, but Trump was elected because no one thought he would be, so didn't go out and vote against him.
That's why it's peddle to the metal until he is destroyed this time.
To answer your question about why the Rs are making out that DJT is winning, it’s because it’s human nature to want to say that you voted for the person who won the election. So if someone truly thinks that Trump is winning, they might just change their Harris vote to Trump, just so they can be “in” with the winners, which would then give Trump more votes.
Thing is, though, it’s pretty obvious now that the only polls that put Trump ahead are the ones taken by the Rs… so, they’re just not polling the Ds, and everyone knows it.
I’ve not read the fine print on the polls, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Rs don’t say “random” any longer — i.e. the Rs have found their sample’s size of Ds who say, for whatever reason, they’re going to vote for Trump, and then the Rs always poll the same people, so that they can always get the results they want.
Pairs well with:
https://open.substack.com/pub/goodbyedonald/p/the-state-of-the-race-the-view-from
I stopped paying attention to polls years ago.
complete buffoon
Yes, if you’re talking about people who pay attention to polls.
No. People who pay attention to polls are people gaining information about the race.
Polls suck. Those conducting them always have their own agendas and only seek opinions from people who support their biases.
most widely accepted polls are by widely known and often affiliated with a organization. Either they make an attempt to be neutral and accurate, or they do not, and if they do not, there is a meaning in trying to decipher what those with agendas would have an interest in portraying, why they have an interest in portraying it, and what they believe the real status is. this is all in addition to the number of polls done by organizations that would try to be as unbiased as possible.
https://medium.com/@rickpenney/recall-polling-and-trumps-4-6-uplift-e4e2041c1653
The Trump Uplift is creating the appearance of a close race and Trump could use them to justify bad counting and disrupt everything … let’s hope the red wave required to make it close isn’t real
I loved this article first, it explains an heretofore opaque unreality in the polls from the masters Silver/ABC538/RCP... coming away shaking my head, mumbling..this just can't be right! Second, it is making a good call...just walk away Renee! From polling!
I’ve read quite a few analyses of this new post-poll tweaking methodology based on “recalled votes”, and although all go to lengths to acknowledge the good intentions its use is based on, they also ALL have doubted the accuracy of results when applied to this election for the solid reasons well-explained in this article.
Brilliant
Love the video. Polls are bullshit like your article says.
I haven’t heard anyone talking about the shy Harris voters. Much like the shy “Trump” voters in 2016, what about the opposite this time around. People who are voting for Trump are pounding their chest and proud. We (my wife and I) would never put up a Harris/Walz yard sign due to the negativity we would get.
Ironically, on my drive to work, in a county that voted for Trump by over 50% over Biden, there has been an equal number (or thereabouts) of Trump and Harris yard signs. I’m not saying she is going to win my highly conservative county and state. But, maybe she makes inroads? I’ve been wrong before and will likely be wrong again, but it is just something I’ve noticed.
I think you're onto something.
Independents aren’t usually polled and we’re the growing group of “deciders”… most of us are highly educated, well-off and have no tolerance for the left or right BS - that said, the independent voter mantra s/b thought of as “I’m an independent - I vote for the person, not the party”… we cast votes across the political spectrum, favoring those that
demonstrate their character and moral/ethical compass, on a daily basis, by
(1) expressing compassion
(2) having empathy
(3) having and following one’s moral/ethical compass
(4) leading by example
(5) praising in public whilst coaching in private
(6) being honest, transparent and demonstrating respect and integrity in all we do/say and how we behave, both in private and public…
Now, knowing this, who’da hell do y’all think the independent voters will cast their ballots for???
Scenario: Harris wins the election nationally by 5%, and wins the majority of the swing states by 2%+. In this scenario it seems certain that the Republicans would shout from the rooftops "The media and the polls have been saying for months that the race was 50/50, but now they're saying Harris won in a landslide? FRAUD!!!"
Let's be clear, they are going to say fraud in the wake of any outcome other than a clear Trump win (which I think is highly unlikely), but this paradoxical situation where a decisive Harris win adds fuel to their fire is concerning.
All Harris supporters who have a media presence should be hammering every time they appear on TV, social media, print, etc. on the possibility that the polls may be overcompensating for past misses, and Harris may win decisively.