Men and the media need to pay attention that women as absolutely dissimilar as Liz Cheney and AOC are telling you on our behalf that we are done, it's enough of us to win this.
I’ve been saying much the same thing did several weeks. He tops out at 46-47%. Let’s be generous and say he can improve on his 2020 total of 75 million to 80 million. She is expanding the electorate and is capable of at least 90 million popular votes. Women alone will help her get there. 10 million popular vote majority means an electoral college majority.
Yup ..fair assumption about 46-47.,but you're full of shit as to a Democrat winning at least 90 million....Too polarized an electorate for any big victory..GOP or Dem.
The good thing is the electoral college bias for 2024 is more like 2 points,not 4 points that we've seen in the past ...
Narcissists don't know how to talk about anyone but themselves; so, don't forget that everything that comes out of Trump's mouth about his adversaries is about himself. “She’ll be so easy for them [autocrats.] She’ll be like a play toy.” We all have seen Trump become a play toy for Putin and Kim Jong-Un. Are we to believe he is standing up to them merely because he tries to pull them over with a handshake, but sides with them over our own intelligence services? I think not.
If you need another data point, while everyone is obsessing over close polls in NE-2, people have forgotten about ME-2, which Trump won by 10 in 2016 and 7 in 2020 (in both cases, Trump only narrowly crossed the 50% threshold, with many Downeastern voters going third party or writing in names.) HOWEVER, the last view polls from that district show Harris hovering at 47-50% and Trump unable to get higher than 47%—this whole nonsense of NE-2 being the 270th electoral vote is predicated on ME-2 being a lock for the GOP but the new numbers are being overlooked.
Thank you for the informative article. When I see maps like these, I like to compare population sizes. It would take the wide open spaces of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming to match the electoral vote count of Massachusetts. Huge swaths of red don’t really show how most of the people in America think about the issues.
Very good analysis. I also wonder if the rapid increase in voter registrations among those groups is skewing the polling somehow - perhaps those newly-registered voters are being undersampled? We can be sure they aren't registering to vote for the weird old guy.
Why? Small donor contributions were an early indicator of R enthusiasm in 2016. And one of Trump's great strategic failures has been treat those donors like marks, bleeding them for recurring donations and then burning that war chest on lawyers fees rather than, say, a ground game.
Not to mention 95% of Harris then Harris Walz’ campaign donations simce July 22 have been under $200 dollars and 65% first time 2024 political campaign donations for Kamala & Tim.
These are not the billionaire/millionaire class of Peter Theil, Tim Mellon, Elon Sucks, UFC CEO, WB Disc. WB CNN CEO Zaslav, NYTimes CEO and the recently caught redhanded Russia Paid Banned Right Wing Propaganda Youtuber Traitor donations.
The Big Tent Dems, Indy’s, Never Trumpers & Republicans Against Trump are more representative of the diverse American REAL Patriots that want a representative/WORKING Govt., a return to America being a beacon of Democracy and a Leader of a Future that needs more SERIOUS, FIT public servants in office, as our leaders vs. the rise of Autocracies & Fascism and a Planet Crisis wayyy past needing full focused help to adjust with global warming which as we have seen already effects everything.
Hub & I were literally discussing this “feeling” as I scrolled Substack & found your post. Our “feeling” is that Kamala is going to win in a runaway but we’re going to keep working like she’s down 10 because we’re afraid to trust any “data.” It’s crazy!
I have the same guarded, self-interested view of the election trajectory that you have. And, in the wake of the debate after you wrote, initial polling results indicate further movement in our preferred direction. Fingers crossed...
Acknowledging the dangers of “unskewing”: I am not sure that polling methodology in 2024 is anything other than “figure out how to use the data we gathered to make it look very close, as everyone knows it will be.”
It goes beyond herding into pure Oujia board territory.
Obviously there's been a heavy realignment from when Biden was the nominee, but you have to compare to previous elections still. The generic ballot numbers for the Democrats right now are still well below what they were in 2020 and 2016.
As for favorability, Harris is better liked than Clinton was, but the problem is that the margin in this number between Harris and Trump is much smaller than it was between Clinton and Trump in 2016 at this point in 2016.
As far as registrations, the Democrats and their typical voters have had a big increase lately, but does that offset the depressed numbers earlier this year? You have to look at the total for the election campaign not just month to month or this month compared to the same month in previous cycles.
DOBBS CHANGED EVERYTHING
Exactly! I’ve been on the zoom calls. Women will not this time let him be elected.
Men and the media need to pay attention that women as absolutely dissimilar as Liz Cheney and AOC are telling you on our behalf that we are done, it's enough of us to win this.
They are completely underestimating our fury. No we aren’t screaming about it but we will VOTE!!
This is a terrifying piece from Rick Wilson, and the part on abortion is exactly what I was talking about yesterday https://open.substack.com/pub/therickwilson/p/sunshine-state-stasi?r=evosq&utm_medium=ios
More like a blue tsunami
It NEEDS to be a tsunami
Yes. Not happening, though
I’ve been saying much the same thing did several weeks. He tops out at 46-47%. Let’s be generous and say he can improve on his 2020 total of 75 million to 80 million. She is expanding the electorate and is capable of at least 90 million popular votes. Women alone will help her get there. 10 million popular vote majority means an electoral college majority.
Yup ..fair assumption about 46-47.,but you're full of shit as to a Democrat winning at least 90 million....Too polarized an electorate for any big victory..GOP or Dem.
The good thing is the electoral college bias for 2024 is more like 2 points,not 4 points that we've seen in the past ...
All depends upon turnout.
A bit early for prognostications.
Narcissists don't know how to talk about anyone but themselves; so, don't forget that everything that comes out of Trump's mouth about his adversaries is about himself. “She’ll be so easy for them [autocrats.] She’ll be like a play toy.” We all have seen Trump become a play toy for Putin and Kim Jong-Un. Are we to believe he is standing up to them merely because he tries to pull them over with a handshake, but sides with them over our own intelligence services? I think not.
If you need another data point, while everyone is obsessing over close polls in NE-2, people have forgotten about ME-2, which Trump won by 10 in 2016 and 7 in 2020 (in both cases, Trump only narrowly crossed the 50% threshold, with many Downeastern voters going third party or writing in names.) HOWEVER, the last view polls from that district show Harris hovering at 47-50% and Trump unable to get higher than 47%—this whole nonsense of NE-2 being the 270th electoral vote is predicated on ME-2 being a lock for the GOP but the new numbers are being overlooked.
Polls are BS for predictive purposes and always have been. Polling *averages* like 538 are only slightly better.
The big-picture fundamentals of Presidential races lean in Democrats' favor. Thus, why Allan Lichtman predicted that she'll win.
Thank you for the informative article. When I see maps like these, I like to compare population sizes. It would take the wide open spaces of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming to match the electoral vote count of Massachusetts. Huge swaths of red don’t really show how most of the people in America think about the issues.
🤞
Very good analysis. I also wonder if the rapid increase in voter registrations among those groups is skewing the polling somehow - perhaps those newly-registered voters are being undersampled? We can be sure they aren't registering to vote for the weird old guy.
When you attributed great fundraising to prove the theory of an undercurrent beneath the surface of the polls is where I stopped taking you seriously.
Why? Small donor contributions were an early indicator of R enthusiasm in 2016. And one of Trump's great strategic failures has been treat those donors like marks, bleeding them for recurring donations and then burning that war chest on lawyers fees rather than, say, a ground game.
Not to mention 95% of Harris then Harris Walz’ campaign donations simce July 22 have been under $200 dollars and 65% first time 2024 political campaign donations for Kamala & Tim.
These are not the billionaire/millionaire class of Peter Theil, Tim Mellon, Elon Sucks, UFC CEO, WB Disc. WB CNN CEO Zaslav, NYTimes CEO and the recently caught redhanded Russia Paid Banned Right Wing Propaganda Youtuber Traitor donations.
The Big Tent Dems, Indy’s, Never Trumpers & Republicans Against Trump are more representative of the diverse American REAL Patriots that want a representative/WORKING Govt., a return to America being a beacon of Democracy and a Leader of a Future that needs more SERIOUS, FIT public servants in office, as our leaders vs. the rise of Autocracies & Fascism and a Planet Crisis wayyy past needing full focused help to adjust with global warming which as we have seen already effects everything.
Hub & I were literally discussing this “feeling” as I scrolled Substack & found your post. Our “feeling” is that Kamala is going to win in a runaway but we’re going to keep working like she’s down 10 because we’re afraid to trust any “data.” It’s crazy!
I have the same guarded, self-interested view of the election trajectory that you have. And, in the wake of the debate after you wrote, initial polling results indicate further movement in our preferred direction. Fingers crossed...
Please. I remember how ‘wave’ talk worked before. We just work and make it happen
“Still not sold on Kamala,” what a polite way to say they don’t want to vote for a woman, let alone a Black one.
Acknowledging the dangers of “unskewing”: I am not sure that polling methodology in 2024 is anything other than “figure out how to use the data we gathered to make it look very close, as everyone knows it will be.”
It goes beyond herding into pure Oujia board territory.
Obviously there's been a heavy realignment from when Biden was the nominee, but you have to compare to previous elections still. The generic ballot numbers for the Democrats right now are still well below what they were in 2020 and 2016.
As for favorability, Harris is better liked than Clinton was, but the problem is that the margin in this number between Harris and Trump is much smaller than it was between Clinton and Trump in 2016 at this point in 2016.
As far as registrations, the Democrats and their typical voters have had a big increase lately, but does that offset the depressed numbers earlier this year? You have to look at the total for the election campaign not just month to month or this month compared to the same month in previous cycles.