Throwing Lame Ducks
What Peyton Manning can teach Joe Biden about going out on top
Going out on top, whether after winning a Super Bowl or the White House, requires a tricky bit of timing, writes Jack Hughes. The decision not to run for re-election is the smart one, but when to announce it is the trick. That’s why Hughes says Biden can take a lesson from Peyton Manning. Hint: Don’t yell “Omaha!”
by Jack Hughes
Peyton Manning will almost certainly be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in the Class of 2021. There he will join another former Denver Broncos quarterback, John Elway. Manning and Elway share something else, they both ended their long careers by going out on top – announcing their retirements after big Super Bowl wins. Will President Joe Biden follow their example and do the same?
Biden, Manning, and Elway all are similar in the sense they had success both early and late in their careers. They all led their teams to the championship at what in their respective professions was considered advanced age. When an older QB plays past their prime they ‘throw ducks’; the spiral on the ball isn’t as tight and it wobbles in flight. When a POTUS plays past his prime, they become a lame duck.
A year ago, long before he had clinched the Democratic presidential nomination, Biden reportedly told his aides that, if elected, he would only serve one term. Trailing in the polls, as he then was, there was a debate about the potential political merits of making a ‘one term’ pledge. In the end, this strategy wasn’t adopted – but it’s still a safe bet that an 82-year-old Biden won’t go for another four-year term.
When and assuming he decides not to run again in 2024, Biden has a duty to the Democratic Party to make his intentions clear early enough to allow candidates to organize their campaigns but not so early that it dilutes his presidential authority. Until that time, Biden or his surrogates – trusted confidants such as his sister Valerie – will need to keep open the possibility he’ll be on the ballot next time.
Manning and Elway may give Biden something to think about before calling an audible.
It’s a question of timing, then. And, here, Manning and Elway may give Biden something to think about before calling an audible. Neither of them announced their retirement on the night they won the Super Bowl, waiting instead to get their ducks in a row. While their decisions didn’t surprise fans, they avoided a mistake which haunted one of Biden’s presidential predecessors: Theodore Roosevelt.
Despite being only 46 years old, Roosevelt notified the press that he wouldn’t be a candidate in the 1908 election only hours after having won the 1904 election. He issued a firm, formal declaration that “Under no circumstances will I be a candidate or accept another nomination.” It was an emotional call, made impulsively in the heat of the moment. He soon regretted it and did for the rest of his life.
Biden clearly didn’t follow TR’s example, nor should he feel pressured to make any commitment – one way or the other – in his upcoming inaugural address. He can instead follow the Manning and Elway playbook, taking the time he needs to get his cabinet and other appointees confirmed by the Senate. Elway waited 91 days after the Super Bowl, Biden can easily hold off until after his first 100 days.
Waiting until it’s too late could kill the Democratic Party’s chances of holding on to the White House. Here, again, we can draw a football analogy. Before he played in Denver, Manning spent most of his NFL career with the Indianapolis Colts. His successor, Andrew Luck, shocked the world when he retired as the Colts QB at the age of 29 – two weeks before the season started in late August 2019.
Luck’s last-minute departure caused a massive disruption in the league, as the Colts had to scramble to restructure their offense. The political equivalent would be LBJ’s shock resignation early in the 1968 election season. Johnson had been challenged and wounded in New Hampshire primary by anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy before he announced on March 31st he wouldn’t accept another term.
If Vice President-elect Kamala Harris is preparing to run in 2024, on the belief that Biden won’t, she may be tempted to take comfort in the fact that LBJ’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, was his successor as Democratic nominee. Yet, it’s worth noting that Humphrey secured the nomination only after a fierce and bitter contest eclipsed by the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Bobby Kennedy.
Presidential decisions not to seek re-election haven’t traditionally benefitted their vice presidents.
Presidential decisions not to seek re-election haven’t traditionally benefitted their vice presidents. TR’s vice president, William Fairbanks, tried but failed to secure the Republican nomination in 1908. Calvin Coolidge’s, Charles Dawes, was blocked from getting the presidential or vice-presidential nod in 1928. Truman’s Veep, Alben Barkley made himself available but lost to Adlai Stevenson in 1952.
Harris’ chances would be improved significantly if Biden were to back her. Each of the four 20thcentury presidents who chose not to run for another term – despite being eligible – either chose or at least accepted their party’s eventual nominees. Roosevelt promoted William Howard Taft. Coolidge vetoed Dawes but not Herbert Hoover. Truman actively courted Stevenson. LBJ twisted arms for Humphrey.
This is key. Biden is presumed to be a lame duck before he’s even inaugurated, a first in U.S. history, but it’s a rebuttable presumption. Even if he decides not to seek re-election, he can retain enormous influence on the choice of his successor. The reverence he will receive will depend on the respect he shows the team. Even if Joe Biden becomes a lame duck that doesn’t mean he’ll be throwing them.
Still, when I say the presumption Biden won’t run again is rebuttable I mean that he would be well within his rights to give it another go and run again in 2024. If he succeeds at it, and stays in good health, there are signs that ‘80 is the new 70’ in U.S. politics. Moreover, football fans will be thinking of the stat I’ve not mentioned: Both Elway and Manning retired after they won the Super Bowl…twice.
Jack Hughes is a communications consultant based in Canada. His previous contributions to The Experiment include “Same of Thrones,” “Tippecanoe and Agnew Anew,” “Harris / Shuri 2020,” and “Firth and Firthiness,” among others.
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