Hogan 2024
It's not the one you're thinking of
Jack Hughes’ back with a look at the buzz about Hogan running for the Republican nomination in 2024.
by Jack Hughes
The countdown to the 2024 election is well underway and The Experiment’s decision desk is ready to make an early projection: The winner of the Republican presidential nomination is Hogan. It’s still too soon to call, however, whether it will be two-term Maryland Governor Larry Hogan or five-time WWF Champion Hulk Hogan.
An aggressive call? Sure, but not outlandish. After showing remarkable resilience in the 2020 campaign, the Republican Party now finds itself at an inflection point. It can go back to the ‘mainstream’ politics of its storied past or go ahead with the ‘main event’ politics of its stormy present. It’s a choice personified by two Hogans.
Let’s start with Larry. The bespectacled son of a former congressman, 64-year-old Larry Hogan was first elected Governor of Maryland in 2014. He was re-elected in 2018 in a state that voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. He is moderate, centrist, pragmatic, as well as socially progressive.
Then there’s Hulk. The biscepted son of a construction foreman, 67-year-old Hulk Hogan was born in the swing state of Georgia but now lives in bellwether Pinellas County, Florida which has been won by every successful presidential candidate since 1976 with one exception (2000). He’s a patriot as well as a proud Christian.
While on the surface they may seem total opposites, the two share some similarities. Both believe in bipartisan cooperation. As Hogan said: “Republicans and Democrats act like they hate each other, and they don't want to do anything except create chaos. So, I really don't want to be any part of that.” [That’s actually a Hulk quote.]
It can go back to the ‘mainstream’ politics of its storied past or go ahead with the ‘main event’ politics of its stormy present.
In fact, Hulk – an avowed Republican – even supported Barack Obama back in 2008. The difference is, unlike Larry, he has since been a strong and consistent supporter of Donald Trump. If the GOP continues to be controlled by Trump acolytes going forward, it could prove to be a decisive factor in any contest between them.
Though Hulk has never held office, there have been attempts – including by Roger Stone – to get him to him run for Governor or Senator. While demurring, Hogan noted: “After seeing Donald Trump’s fanbase and watching what Jesse Ventura did, in the state of Florida, I got a feeling it wouldn't be that hard. I really do.”
Hulk is right in thinking he’s perfectly aligned with the tone and temperament of the present-day GOP. He is unabashedly and unapologetically pro-America to a degree matched only by President Trump. He even has a familiar populist anthem from his wrestling days: “I am a real American. Fight for the rights of every man.”
Hulk’s wrestling career is another plus in a Republican primary, even the general election. Donald Trump benefited from his affiliation with the WWE, not only stylistically but substantively. That’s not new. Back in the 1980s, leading Republican strategist Lee Atwater urged candidates to mimic pro-wrestling interviews.
Arguably his biggest advantage is name recognition. Even a modestly conservative estimate would say as many as 100% of American voters know who Hulk is. Outside Maryland, Larry’s numbers would be far, far lower. (Hulk Hogan has 2.2 million followers on Twitter. Larry Hogan’s personal Twitter account has 52,000.)
Of course, Larry Hogan also has advantages. His approval ratings in Maryland (73%) are the envy of elected officials everywhere. He was Chair of the National Governors Association, historically a springboard for leaders with larger ambitions, and four of the last eight presidents were state governors on their way to Washington.
If he did run, Hulkamania would run wild.
Arguably his biggest advantage is the fact it seems somewhat unlikely that Hulk will run for president in 2024. (Of course, I’d remind – and caution – readers that two weeks after Mitt Romney’s defeat in 2012 it seemed almost as unlikely that Donald Trump would be a Republican president-elect in a mere four years’ time.)
Indeed, the 2016 and 2020 elections have repeatedly shown us that just because an idea seems implausible or improbable doesn’t mean that it’s impossible. And, for what it’s worth, Hulk hasn’t completely ruled out running for office – in fact, he’s thought about it. What’s more, if he did run, Hulkamania would run wild.
For his part, Larry Hogan has all but announced his candidacy in the time-honored Washington way of answering any questions by saying it’s too early for him to think about it while still allowing that “a lot of people” don’t think it’s too early for him to think about it. I bet an exploratory committee will be launched in 2021.
And, so, that’s whyThe Experimentdecision desk is comfortable with its projection. Since 2000, the average number of official candidates for a contested Republican presidential nomination is 13. IfoneHogan runs we’ve got an 8% chance of being right. Iftworun? 15%. Those are better odds than pollsters gave Trump.
Jack Hughes is a communications consultant based in Canada. His previous contributions to The Experiment include “Same of Thrones,” “Tippecanoe and Agnew Anew,” “Harris / Shuri 2020,” and “Firth and Firthiness,” among others.
What do you think of today's email? I'd love to hear your thoughts, questions and feedback. I might even put ‘em in the newsletter if I don’t steal it outright.
Enjoying this newsletter? Forward to a friend! They can sign up here. Unless of course you were forwarded this email, in which case you should…
Forget the Alamo: The Rise and Fall of the American Myth comes out June 8 from Penguin Random House. There is no better way to support this book than to pre-order a copy. You’re going to love reading what really happened at the Alamo, why the heroic myth was created, and the real story behind the headlines about how we’re all still fighting about it today.
Want a way to send gifts and support local restaurants? Goldbelly’s got you hooked up.
I used this to order scotch delivered right to my door. Recommend.
I’ve lost 35 pounds this year with Noom, and haven’t had to cut out any foods. Noom is an app that uses psychology, calorie counting, and measuring activity to change your behavior and the way you think about food. I’m stronger and healthier than I’ve been in years. Click on the blue box to get 20% off.
Headspace, a guided meditation app, was a useful tool for my late-stage maturation has been a godsend to me during the pandemic. Click here for a free trial.
If this newsletter is of some value to you, consider donating. Honestly, I’m not doing this for the money. I’m writing this newsletter for myself, and for you. And a lot of you are contributing with letters and by suggesting articles for me to post. But some of you have asked for a way to donate money, so I’m posting my Venmo and PayPal information here. I promise to waste every cent you give me on having fun, because writing this newsletter for you is some of the most fun I’ve had. Venmo me at @Jason-Stanford-1, or use this PayPal link.