The Day Data Died
Pollster Stefan Hankin shines a light on why we feel like we're in darkness
The best part of not writing the newsletter right now is that I get my smartest friends to contribute, and today we’re lucky enough to look inside one of the more plastic minds I’ve encountered. Stefan Hankin is a pollster who looks at public opinion data in a more fluid way, and today he offers an insight on our current predicament that I’ve not seen elsewhere.
Our modern society thrives on data. Whether it’s the sports world, the business world, social science, economics, or just about every other category you can think of, for decades data regarding people’s experiences, opinions, and behavior has driven decision making and understanding about how our world works. This data has now become a casualty of the COVID-19 health and economic crises.
Up to this point, our knowledge (regardless of industry or discipline) has been based on our understanding of what has happened in the past coupled with our understanding of what is happening at the current time. We use these two sets of inputs to make a prediction of what will happen in the near future. Typically, the better the inputs and understanding of these two data categories the better the predictions of future events will be.
Right now neither of these inputs exist in any meaningful way. Our understanding of even the very recent past is largely irrelevant, and our understanding of the present is incomplete and unclear. So our decision making is happening largely in the absence of real data, leaving gut instinct, hunches, and ideology as the drivers: a very scary prospect.
There is nothing in the past 100 years that comes close to being comparable to our current events. Even society altering events such as 9-11 or World Wars had very different effects on us as Americans and us as global citizens. Even though the cause of the 2008 Great Recession was a unique set of circumstances, there was precedent for people to work off of to determine likely human and consumer behavior based on reactions to other sharp economic downturns. Currently, we are in the dark.
During the last few weeks, people have basically stopped being customers overnight. For example, we found that Americans have gone from spending about half of their food budget at restaurants and take out, to 19% on average. This drop represents about $45 Billion dollars per month to the restaurant industry. This didn’t happen over a few years, it happened over a few weeks.
This is not to say that commerce has completely ground to a halt, but past buying patterns are no longer predictive (the run on toilet paper for example). While supermarkets are having an unprecedented level of sales, companies focusing on non-essential items are taking a big hit. Volatility is increasing because we don’t know how long these changes in consumer behavior are going to last or if spending will quickly move back to past patterns or if the ramp back up to a growing economy will manifest itself in a totally new way. The number of businesses who are working with any reasonable understanding of our current situation is slim to none.
Even the data sets that have been the foundation of so many decisions in the past (census data as an example) are moving into the obsolete category quickly since income, living arrangements, employment status, etc. are all likely to be changing from week to week.
In addition to the many other ways we are going to need to rethink and relearn daily life in the coming months, we are going to need to find better ways for decision-makers to understand the world they’re operating in. Political, non-profit, and business leaders are making decisions every day that will shape our future, and they're doing so in an exceptionally fast-changing environment with extremely limited information.
To help combat this information gap Trendency Research has created The COVID-19 Data Project. This project will allow all of us to understand how the crisis is affecting people, and how that's changing day by day. This data is already starting to show not just what people are feeling and needing, but how that's changing over time-critical information as we come together to decide what we do next. This data will be distributed publicly and also directly to decision-makers. We are in this together, and we will get through this. Data is one important piece of the puzzle and we can all help.
For more information please go to https://thecovid19dataproject.com.
How we’re getting through this
Made spaghetti with fried eggs for dinner. Instant classic. Cheap and easy. Creamy pasta with bacon and peas was a hit.
I’ve lost six pounds since the pandemic was declared; here’s how. (Seriously, this isn’t spam.)
Ryan Holiday’s Daily Stoic podcast has been invaluable during this tumult.
Will quarantining help us live healthier lives in whatever comes next?
What I’m reading
Sports betting is getting so weird, yo.
Paul Theroux has some thoughts about our present bit of upset.
If your political philosophy puts you at odds with health experts during a pandemic, you might be a redneck.
Last word: Monica Hesse and Dan Zak writing the history of Purell? I didn’t know I needed this.
Got some reading suggestions? Post them in the comments section, and I might include them in the next newsletter.
What I’m watching
The Man Who Killed Hitler and Then the Bigfoot was a badly executed good idea. Harrison Ford’s Call of the Wild was sanitized for very sensitive viewers and succeeded only in making me wish I still had a big dog and want to reread Jack London.
Just started watching Brockmire, the first three seasons of which are streaming on Hulu. Shockingly good pilot.
Got suggestions? Post them in the comments section, and I might include them in the next newsletter.
What I’m listening to
Colin Hay’s acoustic version of “Overkill”
I can't get to sleep
I think about the implications
Of diving in too deep
And possibly the complicationsEspecially at night
I worry over situations
I know will be alright
Perhaps it's just imagination
Billy Bragg’s “What Will You Do When the War is Over?”
Will you say that we were heroes
Or that fear of dying among strangers
Tore our innocence and false shame away
George Stanford’s “Pressure Makes Diamonds”
They say pressure makes diamonds, and I hope that it’s true
If it is then I’ll be shining bright like the moon
Orville Peck, the masked Canadian country crooner, dropped a single about, he says, “biding your time and staying hopeful—even if it means missing something or someone.” We got this, people. I give you “Summertime.”
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