Gore in '24
It's less nutty than you'd think
Is Al Gore Jr. the best Democrat to close the enthusiasm gap with Republicans in 2024, when Donald Trump is expected to make a comeback? Jack Hughes seems to think so.
by Jack Hughes
The results of this month’s off-year elections in both Virginia and New Jersey have spooked Democrats as they brace for next year’s midterms. The surprising strength of the Republican vote revealed an enthusiasm chasm that augurs poorly for keeping the House and Senate – not to mention the White House. With Joe Biden’s approval ratings offering no coattails, Democrats must rally around a new old leader: Al Gore.
Regular readers of The Experiment know we’re suckers for an epic vice-presidential comeback story, but the argument for Gore in ’24 might be built on an even stronger strategic foundation. Gore is that rare establishment Democrat with established bona fides on the top priority for progressives – the environment. Gore can not only bridge the divide within his own party he can also bridge the enthusiasm gap with the GOP.
There are lots of good explanations for why the Democrats have an enthusiasm gap, and little question that a good chunk of it has been self-inflicted. Intramural battles between the Biden White House and Congressional Democrats concerning the Build Back Better social infrastructure package have frustrated the party’s core supporters who can be forgiven for thinking their big tent party is looking like a big top circus.
Gore has been among only a handful of Democrats to downplay the party divisions as well as the disastrous results in Virginia. Speaking from the UN COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Gore expressed confidence that Biden’s signature legislative initiative, containing strong environmental provisions, would pass before Christmas. He also said that the loss in Virginia was in line with the historical trends since 1977.
The former vice president has been working both in front of the cameras and behind the scenes to ensure the Biden Administration doesn’t try to dilute the environmental language in the Build Back Better plan simply to secure its swift passage. As one of the few prominent proponents of Biden’s actions to date and his COP26 appearance, Gore is acting as an honest broker between the West Wing and left-wing Democrats.
Democrats must rally around a new old leader: Al Gore.
Admittedly, Gore’s Nobel Prize-winning environmental advocacy might not get him far with Senator Joe Manchin. Gore lost West Virginia back in the 2000 election – with its five electoral college votes ultimately being the margin of victory. It’s a state Democratic nominees had previously won in 1960, 1964, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, and 1996. Beginning with Gore, no Democratic nominee has won it in 20 years.
Yet, Gore’s 2000 election loss is the reason he may be the Democrat best positioned to close the enthusiasm gap with Republicans. GOP turnout was higher in the 2021 off-year elections because a significant number of their voters, possibly a majority, are still mad the 2020 election was ‘stolen’ from Donald Trump. Gore is the only man alive who can offer a compelling, competing narrative about a comparable loss.
The 2000 election is for Democrats what the 2020 election is for Republicans; it’s a heartbreaking, painful defeat that’s impossible to get over given the irregularities – real or imagined. It not only undermined their faith in the fairness of democracy it raised questions about the integrity of government institutions. The Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore is still among its most controversial even after two decades.
Live video feeds of mail-in ballots being counted in 2020 were eerily similar to old news footage of the manual recount of Florida ballots in 2000. In both cases those images generated court challenges and public protests. The difference, of course, is Gore came closer, later conceded, and, what’s more, he personally presided over the Senate’s certification of the election result in his capacity as outgoing Vice President.
To this day, millions of Americans believe Gore lost the election because his votes in Florida were improperly tabulated. George W. Bush won Florida, where his brother Jeb was Governor, with a certified count of 2,912,790 votes (48.847%) to Gore’s 2,912,253 (48.838%) – a difference of 537. (Worse, 2,000+ Gore voters in Palm Beach mistakenly voted for Pat Buchanan, confused by the ‘butterfly’ ballot.)
Gore’s 2000 election loss is why he may be best positioned to close the enthusiasm gap.
(If you allow for some revisionist history, some may remember that Donald Trump briefly campaigned to be the Reform Party presidential nominee in 2000 before he dropped out. Had he remained in the race, and won the nomination, Trump might’ve received the errant Gore votes. It’s also worth noting in 2020 Trump received over 334,000 votes in Palm Beach County, more than double what Bush garnered in 2000.)
If Trump runs again in 2024, he’ll frame it as a ‘restoration’ – not reversing a loss but ‘righting a wrong.’ He’ll fire up MAGA voters with righteous indignation to drive record turnout in Republican-rich rural counties in battleground states. It could work. The Republican share of the vote was up more than 6% in Virginia and New Jersey in 2021 vs. 2020 after Trump got more votes in both states in 2020 vs. 2016.
If Democrats are divided heading into the 2024 election, led by an 82-year-old president with dismally low approval ratings who lost control of both the House and Senate two years before, it’s hard to imagine their base will be enthused, especially in comparison to a dedicated band of America First populists who believe they were cheated in 2020 and, moreover, believe it’s God’s will that Trump is president again.
If not Biden, then who? Vice President Kamala Harris doesn’t seem like the answer, at least not today, as her approval rating is 28% - which is 10% lower than Biden’s. To put that number in perspective, The Experiment favorite Dan Quayle had a 43% approval rating at the same point of his term as Veep. Al Gore, for his part, generally had approval ratings as Vice President above 50% and, on occasion, higher than 60%.
Sticking with Gore, then, wouldn’t a stronger opponent against Trump be someone who an equally large group of American voters believe in their hearts and minds was actually the one cheated out of the presidency? Wouldn’t it level the playing field by giving Democrats a ready-made response to #stopthesteal Republicans? Would it not stir up emotional enthusiasm by having them fight for vindication not against it?
To be clear, Al Gore isn’t the perfect candidate but he has a unique backstory that allows him to defuse or deflect Republican enthusiasm on the question of electoral fairness. In a sense Trump and Gore can be seen as two sides of the same coin, how each dealt with their losses speaks volumes about their character. And, who knows, their supporters might find some common ground – we know they all hate Jeb Bush.
Jack Hughes is a communications consultant based in Canada. His previous contributions to The Experiment include “Same of Thrones,” “Tippecanoe and Agnew Anew,” “Harris / Shuri 2020,” “Bidenfeld,” “Firth and Firthiness,” “The Ballot of Bill McKay,” and “The World Wants ‘The West Wing,’” among others. His inexplicably extensive writings on Dan Quayle are “The Unusual Suspect,” “The Unusual Suspect II,” “The GOPfather,” “Porqua, CoQau?”, “Quayle’s Hunting Season” and “I Told You So.” Connect with him on LinkedIn here.
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