Dems are the f***ing worst, part 1
Pollster Stefan Hankin says Democrats need to stop falling for race baiting
Republicans have won elections with race baiting since Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act in 1965, and Democrats have usually seen two choices: take the bait, or ignore it as a distraction. And since 1965, those choices haven’t worked. In the first of a three-part series, pollster Stefan Hankin says maybe the problem is in how Democrats define their choices.
by Stefan Hankin
Now that we have had a few weeks to process what happened during the November elections in Virginia and New Jersey (among other states around the country), had a little too much turkey to eat, listened to the conservative majority on the Supreme Court look for reasons to overturn Roe v Wade, and switched from pumpkin spice lattes to peppermint mochas, it is with clear eyes that we can come to the conclusion that yes, Democrats are indeed the fucking worst. Granted this is not a new phenomenon but given the stakes these days, it just becomes more and more depressing every year.
What feels like just yesterday we were watching President Barack Obama being sworn into office, with 60 seats in the US Senate, and a majority in the House of Representatives. It felt good. It felt like there was a new direction for our country, and so many of us were just happy to be along for the ride. Those were some good times.
Since 2008, there have been six major election years, and the Democrats have wet the bed in five of them and have Donald Trump to thank for the successes in the sixth (2018). Yet somehow, we actively can’t learn lessons from elections, or refuse to do so. We are also lazy (why try to win local elections when we can just focus on US Senate races we have no chance of winning), would rather be right than win (can you believe how inconsistent Republicans are in their views), and we almost always refuse to dance with the person we showed up to the ball with (why don’t Black voters just turnout?). We are predictable and, arguably worst of all, we fall of the bait that the GOP puts out…every….damn…time.
In 2021 the tactic was Critical Race Theory (CRT) and given the GOP success in this past election I am sure this will be around for at least another year. At the same time, I am sure Democrats will continue to botch how they deal with this issue.
Now before we talk about the 2021 election there needs to be a little discussion about what is really happening in this country right now. As discussed in a previous post in this newsletter the GOP has used the rules of government set up by our Founding Fathers that were intended to protect the minority view in this country, to instead force minority rule on to the country. This version of American Apartheid is now in full swing with a smaller and smaller subset of our population able to rule from our Federal Government down to the state level. The ability to mobilize this plan has been aided by social media echo chambers and a national media outlet who does the bidding of the GOP at every turn.
This version of American Apartheid is now in full swing.
We know the rules, we know what they are doing to win, yet we do nothing to change. Case in point, the newest iteration of subtle, yet not subtle race baiting of CRT. The attacks on CRT began in 2020 as a workable path forward for those on the right who rely on culture wars to keep their supporters engaged (we would highly recommend listening to the New York Times Daily podcast about CRT from July 2nd, 2021 where they show how the outrage over CRT is fabricated and is being used as a social wedge by the right – and the leaders of this effort are quite clear that this is the case).
The big challenge that Democrats will point to is that this is a manufactured issue focused on a theory of thought that was a class at Harvard Law School. There are zero schools at the K-12 level that were, or are, teaching Critical Race Theory or using it as a foundation of their teachings. Now this is all true and in a rational world this would end any discussion, but we don’t live in a rational world. We live in a world where Democrats need to turnout their base of Black and Hispanic Voters and add enough white voters to make the math work. This does not mean winning a majority of white voters…which is a good thing.
The last time the Democratic Party won a majority of white voters in a Presidential election was in 1964. Coincidentally, President Lyndon Baynes Johnson signed the voting rights act in 1965. Oh wait, not coincidentally at all. Ever since the Republican Party has used race to divide and win elections. From President Richard Nixon fully embracing, and expanding, the Southern Strategy to not only win southern whites, but scare enough suburban whites into voting for the GOP.
In a rational world this would end any discussion, but we don’t live in a rational world.
In the past the Republican use of race was a touch more subtle. In 1980, then-candidate Ronald Reagan staged a rally at the Neshoba County Fair in Philadelphia, Mississippi. This seems like a fairly random choice, but that is unless you are aware that Neshoba County was the site of the murders of Black activist James Cheney and white civil rights workers Michael Schwerner and Andrew Goodman. But don’t worry, the message was received loud and clear from those white voters pining for a return to a segregated South. The topic of the speech was states rights, again subtle enough that white suburban voters can say to themselves, “I’m not racist, I just support states’ rights.”
The dog whistles continued through the years, ranging from the “Welfare Queen” to the Willy Horton ads in 1988 (yes white suburban people, you should be scared that Black people are going to get out of jail and kill you). Over the years, there are two themes that run in parallel: 1) The GOP will use race to win and 2) Democrats will either take the bait or tell themselves we should just ignore this. Easy playbook to figure out? Absolutely. Will we keep making the same mistake over and over? You betcha.
Fast forward back to that cold day in January of 2009. Obama is now president, and the Tea Party is awakened. This is arguably the point where the GOP walked away from dog whistles and excusable metaphors and visuals and just fully embraced the hate. I mean there was a Black family in the White House…the horror.
Will we keep making the same mistake over and over? You betcha.
In the 2010 elections the GOP used fear masterfully and the stage was set for President Trump just six years later. Trump took the less subtle approach to a new level, and yet Democrats just ignored it. They said there was nothing to worry about, and this would backfire because in surveys people say they are not racists (summarizing dozens of meetings and conference calls I have been on) so let’s take the highroad. Well that worked out super well, didn’t it? But this time we will learn right?
We will not.
A few months ago, the Democratic Strategist Group released a memo suggesting that a winning strategy in 2022 would be to pivot away from Critical Race Theory debates and define them as a distraction from real issues. They suggested that this was a nothing issue and that Democratic candidates should pivot away from CRT and instead talk about historic figures. Their suggested language was:
“I don’t believe this and neither do the people who vote for me. I’ve had my staff check and there is not a single school in my district that teaches this nonsense so let’s stop talking about utterly false issues. Instead, let’s talk about the real issue. What should our children be taught about race?
Here’s my answer. I believe our children should be taught to honor three great Americans – Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Martin Luther King. They should be taught to honor Thomas Jefferson because he and the other founding fathers created the magnificent American creed – the ideals of freedom, democracy, equality and justice that we still support today. They should be taught to honor Abraham Lincoln because he ended the injustice of slavery and made America live up to its creed. They should be taught to honor Martin Luther King because he led the campaigns that ended segregation, legal discrimination and disenfranchisement, moving us closer to a world of true justice and equality.”
And we are shocked that Democrats are bad at winning elections?
First of all, referring to CRT as nonsense is probably not a great place to start given the fact that Democrats need Black voters to win. Second, might we suggest that if you are talking about teaching race through individuals, that two of the three people you use as the bedrock for teaching race are not (for lack of a better term) white dudes?
As this newsletter pointed out recently in a piece called “The New Tea Party,” this issue is being used in specific areas of the country. Not cities like Austin or inner (i.e. Democratic) suburbs like Arlington or Alexandria, VA but in outer/exurbs where the GOP is trying to bring back white voters. They know they have no real issues to run on and are concerned that interest in the election will wane with Trump not on the ballot in 2022. Therefore, they are purposely ginning up anger to motivate people to vote, and vote scared. Just ask any school board member in these areas how effective this is.
Democrats cannot just ignore the issue and continue to allow Republicans to manufacture false narrative after false narrative.
Instead of walking away from the issue and pivoting to the greatness of white dudes, Democrats cannot just ignore the issue and continue to allow Republicans to manufacture false narrative after false narrative. We do agree with the Democratic Strategist that this issue comes down to one major component: framing the debate. As the GOP ramps up efforts to legislatively ban Critical Race Theory from classrooms through state-level legislation (again they are banning something that does not exist), Democrats would have had the upper hand if we had clearly define the issue, provided a simple and easy framework around it, and advocated against such laws and the overall efforts of the Republicans trying to divide our country in order to maintain the power of minority rule.
A couple months ago, a school district in Texas came under fire for naming the Holocaust as a “two-sided” issue. The district interpreted a new Critical Race Theory law – requiring educators to present multiple sides of race-related issues – as a requirement to present historical events, which are typically regarded as atrocious, in a positive light. Yet the Democratic Party was unable to use this situation of proof-positive that the GOP is insane. Why? Because we are being told to ignore these issues. Instead we should have been out there talking about how the GOP wants to “both sides” the holocaust.
For years the GOP has done a masterful job of maintaining power thought division. It would be nice if the Democrats would actually try to do something about it.
Stefan Hankin is the Founder and President of Lincoln Park Strategies. Stefan has nearly two decades of experience in market research, data analytics, communications strategy, and public opinion polling and analysis for clients that range from America’s Promise to the City of Los Angeles to Raytheon to the Southern Environmental Law Center. Follow him on Twitter at @LPStrategies.
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